Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 86047.748274 90781.176235 95510.106610 100585.705672 105875.766527 111223.421656 117034.471409
2024-12-22 77552.625555 84753.720994 92147.316133 100295.533021 109012.781184 118048.620679 128112.047310
2024-12-29 72801.819093 81791.629360 91220.480314 101825.535866 113399.188280 125624.518430 139492.225424
2025-01-05 68805.142215 79124.897045 90143.868507 102749.131523 116733.066173 131734.017307 149005.042393
2025-01-12 64985.310271 76298.182338 88570.298848 102819.615430 118854.995166 136287.787741 156616.773056
2025-01-19 61582.757606 73683.247935 86999.796605 102670.698444 120533.027494 140184.030004 163360.206934
2025-01-26 59846.731732 72813.152294 87264.491192 104471.785411 124305.046410 146349.774667 172603.266347
2025-02-02 58308.108774 72052.896133 87552.645300 106209.272207 127933.806796 152308.203619 181593.761818
2025-02-09 56388.022110 70734.909291 87097.610227 106998.386469 130398.370519 156887.207982 188980.009463
2025-02-16 54128.229323 68906.815223 85949.031966 106886.292273 131737.853449 160111.837590 194764.798409
2025-02-23 52411.956711 67648.877050 85401.941505 107418.029471 133778.872084 164114.641369 201436.816989
2025-03-02 50565.554007 66154.849617 84502.778039 107465.263729 135192.515430 167344.868016 207182.629213
2025-03-09 49463.416919 65556.083675 84679.764431 108821.541377 138206.631683 172526.981202 215334.164418
2025-03-16 47544.684641 63880.103111 83490.086983 108471.771439 139133.794416 175213.913426 220526.617474
2025-03-23 46733.567466 63554.374821 83928.594414 110092.007920 142439.723010 180752.089190 229156.848007
2025-03-30 45667.743791 62861.514526 83874.465156 111073.319524 144945.330083 185321.887327 236635.837573
2025-04-06 44235.869135 61648.951557 83124.766437 111147.915308 146302.766602 188481.131722 242403.210514
2025-04-13 42776.384526 60351.054514 82222.384063 110989.284793 147337.199268 191224.396002 247655.846469
2025-04-20 42338.443251 60364.440866 82970.881005 112906.475275 150962.192593 197158.545049 256849.094182
2025-04-27 41898.376471 60353.587942 83672.703425 114755.600074 154503.610591 203004.830540 265968.147797
2025-05-04 41044.917145 59763.631138 83602.012773 115595.296422 156758.868899 207257.523986 273132.304352
2025-05-11 39825.276555 58645.739354 82811.312541 115476.021213 157771.897254 209948.881826 278354.833934
2025-05-18 38946.625745 57961.224855 82564.149474 116041.808140 159647.290214 213717.353761 284933.885409